Never Say Never - Long Odds Sometimes Do Payoff

A few years ago, I was presenting on medical futility disputes at the Wynn in Las Vegas.  To fit the scene, I included lots of gambling references.  For example, in the ICU context, surrogates are often ready to "roll the dice."  After all, they need not lay down a bet.  Medicare and the private payers are covering the financial cost.  And the nursing staff is bearing the psychic cost.  



Still, when the odds are anything north of zero, nothing in medicine or science can authoritative say that the patient's chances are "too low."  First, prognostication is difficult and imprecise.  Second, even if we knew that the patient's chances of recovery were low, it is a contested value judgment whether they are worthwhile to pursue.



Sometimes, long odds pay off.  For example, on leaving a Sports Authority store, I filled out a sweepstakes entry.  While the odds of winning were slim, I won.  My son and I got lots of free equipment.  And he got to throw out the opening pitch at a Twins baseball game.